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Severe storms this afternoon


The National Weather Service just had a conference call concerning the potential for severe weather this afternoon.  It still appears that the best chance for severe weather is later this afternoon and into the evening.  This morning, a line of severe storms developed to the west of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and is continuing to move east.  The main part of the weather disturbance is still in west Texas.  An upper level low pressure system is spinning in the Texas Panhandle, and a trailing cold front and dry line are located near Abilene, TX. 

surface_march10

Surface Plot, Courtesy of Unisys Weather

The storms that are now in DFW developed along that dry line earlier this morning.  By around 2 to 3 PM, showers and storms will most likely fire along that boundary as it moves into east Texas, and interacts with the warm and humid surface conditions. We are already seeing some breaks in the clouds this morning, and that is only added to the instability, and will help to warm temperatures even more. Temperatures are already in the upper 60s to near 70.  That means that when that boundary arrives, storms will fire up and become severe very quickly.  Then the storms will move east through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

tempsmar10_2

While the entire ArkLaTex is under a slight risk for severe weather, it is looking like the main tornado threat is along the Interstate 30 corridor, in southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and extreme northeast Texas.  However, there is a small chance that these storms could produce tornadoes anywhere in the ArkLaTex. The hail and wind threat remain very high as well.

Stay tuned throughout the day for more updates.

Marcy Novak

Weather | Mar 10

Very dry night in Shreveport…won’t last long!


skewtshv4

Tonight’s skew-t/log-p diagram or atmospheric analysis from the Shreveport National Weather Service and RAP UCAR shows an incredibly dry and stable atmosphere. In fact, the sounding looks more like Phoenix AZ than from NW LA.

Well, the ideal desert conditions won’t last long. Just to the south of I-20 is the dry line where dew points are in the 60s.

dew_points_2009

Dew point is an indication of the moisture content of the atmosphere. The higher numbers down south mean more moisture is in the air. Natchitoches, Many, Minden and Ruston are much more humid than Bossier City.

This humid air is starting to work into a few showers as shown on Mega 3 Doppler Radar below.

mega3dopplerradar

The showers are forming right along the dry line where light south winds are converging with this boundary. Also, a weather disturbance in the upper atmosphere is passing overhead which may be enhancing the intensity of the showers/storms. More will develop tonight as the dry line retreats to the NW and brings the muggy air back to the rest of the ArkLaTex.

Storms are still in tomorrow’s forecast. Stay tuned to KTBS 3 and KPXJ CW 21 for updates.

Joe Haynes

Weather | Mar 9

Severe storms are possible for Wednesday PM!


fcst_svr

The Storm Prediction Center has the ArkLaTex in a Slight Severe Storm Risk area for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Large hail, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes are possible!

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Our next storm system develops tomorrow morning in the Texas panhandle and moves northeast.  Moisture starts to return to the ArkLaTex early with increasing southeast winds.  Clouds move in with some fog, isolated showers and a few storms in southern sections.

fcst_next_chg_2

The rain chance increases around all of the area by afternoon.  Severe storms are possible with strong dynamics from the jetstream and the upper disturbance in OK.  Wind shear is fairly high with SE winds at the surface changing direction to the SW high in the atmosphere and speeding up.  Temperatures are expected in the 70s with low to mid 60 dew point readings.  Thus, CAPE or thunderstorm energy may be high.  This of course depends on the extent of the low cloud cover that is forecasted to move in late tonight and stick around tomorrow morning.  If it breaks early, the storm energy will be higher increasing the severe risk.  Delayed clearing will drop the risk a bit.

A dryline moves into east TX by afternoon initiating strong storms.  Near I-30, enough rotation in the atmosphere may cause isolated tornadoes.  Farther south along the line, storms with hail and gusty winds may develop and race through the ArkLaTex by evening.

Stay tuned to KTBS 3 and KPXJ CW 21 News for forecast updates.

Joe Haynes

Weather | Mar 9

Cool weather today makes tame storms tonight!


skewtshv3

Shreveport Sounding from the Shreveport National
Weather Service and RAP UCAR

Tonight’s balloon data shows a stable atmosphere in Shreveport. There are a couple of temperature inversions-one at about 900 mb or a few thousand feet up and at about 500 mb or 16,000 FT. The lower inversion is from warm SW winds above a relatively cool ground. The higher inversion is the subsidence caused from a ridge in the subtropical jetstream.

Both of these weather features have given the sounding very little CAPE or thunderstorm energy. Thus the line of what once was strong to severe storms over near Waco and Dallas, is just a weakening area of rain as shown below moving into our stable atmosphere.

nexrad

NEXRAD Radar image from the Shreveport National
Weather Service courtesy of RAP UCAR.

Even though the wind shear is high and the dyamics of the upper storm are fairly strong although removed from the ArkLaTex, the cool surface air is zapping the energy from the storms.

That’s good news for us as we should only see showers and isolated storms for tonight. Wednesday may be a different story with another strong disturbance coming to the ArkLaTex that may tap into 70 degree air as compared to today’s storm with a 59 degree atmosphere.

watervapor1

Our next storm shown on the water vapor image over CA is due to arrive on Wednesday. At that time, strong jetstream dynamics, strong wind shear, boundaries to set off convection and high storm energy could make for a busy day!

Stay tuned to KTBS 3 and KPXJ CW 21 News for details.

Joe Haynes

Weather | Mar 8

Strong earthquake slams eastern Turkey, kills 51


Turkey quake

OKCULAR, Turkey – A strong, pre-dawn earthquake struck eastern Turkey on Monday, killing 51 people as it knocked down stone and mud-brick houses and minarets in at least six villages, the government said.

The earthquake surprised many residents as they slept, crumpling buildings into piles of rubble. Panicked survivors fled into the narrow village streets, some climbing out of windows, as more than 50 aftershocks measuring up to 5.5 and 5.3 magnitude rattled the region.

The Kandilli seismology center said the 6.0-magnitude quake hit at 4:32 a.m. (0232 GMT, 9 p.m. EST Sunday) near the village of Basyurt in a remote, sparsely populated area of Elazig province. The region is 340 miles (550 kilometers) east of Ankara, the capital.

The U.S. Geological Survey listed the quake at 5.9 magnitude.

The government initially put the death toll at 57 but later lowered it to 51 with no explanation. In addition to the deaths, 34 people were being treated for injuries, Turkey’s crisis center said.

The worst-hit area was the village of Okcular, where 19 of the village’s 900 residents were killed.

As relatives rushed in for news of their loved ones, authorities blocked off the area so ambulances and rescue teams could maneuver on the village’s narrow, steep roads. Residents lit fires to keep warm in the winter cold, with snow-covered mountains in the background.

“The village is totally flattened,” village administrator Hasan Demirdag told private NTV television.

Ali Riza Ferhat of Okcular said he was woken up by the jolt.

“I tried to get out of the door but it wouldn’t open. I came out of the window and started helping my neighbors,” he told NTV television. “We removed six bodies.”

Video footage showed men using shovels and their bare hands to dig up two bodies from piles of dry dirt and concrete blocks from wrecked houses. Both bodies were covered in blankets and carried away. One appeared to be that of a baby or young child.

Women in veils gathered near the rescue scenes, some crying.

The temblor also knocked down barns, killing many farm animals. A half-dozen dead cows could be seen partially buried in the dirt near one collapsed home.

Another 13 people were killed in the nearby village of Yukari Demirci, Gov. Muammer Erol said, adding that by noon everyone had been removed from the rubble.

“Everything has been knocked down, there is not a stone in place,” said Yadin Apaydin, administrator for the village of Yukari Kanatli, where he said at least three people died.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kandilli Observatory’s director, Mustafa Erdik, urged residents not to enter any damaged homes, warning they could topple from aftershocks that Erdik said could last for days.

Erdogan blamed the region’s mud-brick buildings for the many deaths and said the government housing agency will build quake-proof homes in the area. He said ambulance helicopters, prefabricated homes and mobile kitchens were being rushed in, and Turkey’s Red Crescent aid group sent tents and blankets.

The quake was also felt in the neighboring provinces of Tunceli, Bingol and Diyarbakir, where residents fled to the streets in panic and stayed outdoors. Schools were closed for two days in the region. In Tunceli province, students were sent home after the quake caused a school’s walls to crack, the state-run Anatolia news agency reported.

A museum in Elazig displaying artifacts from the Iron-age Kingdom of Urartu was not affected by the quake, and nearby dams were also intact.

Earthquakes are frequent in Turkey, much of which lies on top of two main fault lines. In 1999, two powerful earthquakes struck northwestern Turkey, killing about 18,000 people.

The Elazig quake followed deadly temblors in Haiti and Chile, but Bernard Doft, the seismologist for the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in Utrecht, said there was no direct connection between the three.

“These events are too far apart to be of direct influence to each other,” he said.

Richard Luckett, a seismologist from the British Geological Survey, said there has not been a spike in global seismic activity.

“If there was a big increase in the number of magnitude 6.0s in the past decade we would know it because we would see it in the statistics,” Luckett said. “We haven’t seen an increase in 7.0s either.”

He said scientists often see strong quakes but they don’t get reported because the damage or death toll is minimal.

“The point is that earthquakes are common and always have been,” he said.

In other Turkish earthquakes, a 5.7-magnitude one in 2007 damaged buildings in Elazig and a 6.4-magnitude one in 2003 killed 83 children in Bingol when a school dormitory collapsed. The collapse was blamed on poor construction.

Weather | Mar 8

Rain set to move in on Monday


qpf_march7

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, 3 Day total for Monday through Wednesday, Courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

After a nice weekend, a spring-like weather forecast will bring a lot of rain to the ArkLaTex this week.  The above image shows the three day total rainfall, the bullseye is over DFW, but areas in east Texas could get over an inch. The first round will move through on Monday as a low pressure system moves in from the west, causing widespread showers and thunderstorms.  It looks like late in the day on Monday through early Tuesday morning is the time frame for seeing strong to severe storms, some producing heavy rain and large hail.  That system moves out by Tuesday afternoon.  Another round of showers and storms is possible on Wednesday afternoon, and a few of those could become severe as well, especially because we will see daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, to help de-stabilize the atmosphere before the disturbance moves in.  A slight chance for rain is in the forecast for Thursday and Friday, before we clear out for next weekend.

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s all week!

And speaking of spring, Next Sunday morning at 2 AM, Daylight Saving Time begins, so don’t forget to ’spring forward’ one hour.  

Marcy Novak

Weather | Mar 7

Dry on Sunday, rain back for Monday


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Water Vapor Image, Saturday Evening, Courtesy of RAP Real-Time Weather

Saturday turned out to be another very nice afternoon, but changes are on the way.  For Sunday, clouds will be on the increase with temperatures in the upper 60s.  The clouds will move in due to an increase in moisture from the Pacific Ocean ahead of our next storm system. That is shown well on the above water vapor image, shown in the purple and blue colors. Rain will move back into the ArkLaTex by Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening.  This is due to an upper level low pressure system that is moving across the desert southwest this weekend.  A few storms could become severe, but the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall.  Rain and storms associated with that system will stick around through Tuesday morning, then partly cloudy skies by the afternoon.

The forecast is tricky beyond Tuesday.  It appears as another system will move through on Wednesday, causing showers and storms on Wednesday through Friday. It is a little too early to tell for sure, but it may turn out to be a rainy week! The good news? Temperatures will remain in the 60s to 70s all week!

Marcy Novak

Weather | Mar 6

Another nice weather day in Shreveport!


skewtshv2

This morning’s sounding or weather balloon data analysis painted another nice weather day in Shreveport!  This morning, there was plenty of dry air in the column all the way up into the stratosphere (the dry and warm atmospheric layer above the troposphere).  In fact, the stability was even higher today because of the subsidence or sinking air from the upper level ridge sitting over the center part of the US (shown below).

jetstream1

This ridge formed from the polar jetstream rising up into Canada and shaped like a mountain ridge will block the storm in the rockies from invading the ArkLaTex this weekend.  The next storm on the west coast will be strong enough to break down the ridge and give us some problems by Monday.

Until then, the subtropical jetstream down south is expected to bring more high clouds or high level Pacific ocean moisture overhead giving us hazy sunshine for the rest of today and for Saturday.  Low clouds from the Gulf of Mexico should show up this weekend too.  Still, expect warm and stable weather until about Monday when the next system arrives.

Have a great weekend.

Joe Haynes

Weather | Mar 5

NASA launches nation’s newest weather satellite


This NASA handout photo shows the mobile service tower at Launch ...

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – NASA has launched the nation’s newest weather satellite.

An unmanned rocket blasted off from Cape Canaveral Thursday evening, carrying a $500 million GOES satellite.

The spacecraft will undergo testing for the next six months and will eventually be an orbiting spare in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite network. The satellites are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

They provide vital images of hurricanes and other storms that threaten the United States. Meteorologists say they couldn’t track storms or issue the proper warnings without them.

The new satellite is GOES-P. It will become GOES-15 once it reaches the proper orbit.

Weather | Mar 5

Nice Warmup Today!


sunnyskies

Today was almost picture perfect when it comes to sunny days here in the ArkLaTex. And with the ample sunshine, temperatures responded nicely-that’s if you like warmer weather.

highstoday

As shown, afternoon maxes ranged from the low to upper 60s from north to south. Here in Shreveport, we made it to 64.

almanac

Surprisingly, we were still below average according to the Shreveport National Weather Service! Over the past 30 years, average afternoon temperatures topped out near 67 on this date.

Our weather pattern is changing which will allow for average or slightly above average temperatures over the next few days. The next map shows the jetstream forming a ridge over the center part of the US.

jetstream

This ridge will continue to block the rapid succession of west coast storms trying to invade the ArkLaTex through at least Saturday. Sinking air beneath this rise in the jetstream should also keep us stable and raise those max temps into the low 70s by Saturday.

Have a nice evening!

Joe Haynes

Weather | Mar 4